Friday, April 29, 2016

NBA Fantasy Match Up: Kevin Love vs. Lamarcus Aldridge

This is a cross match up that may happen if both of these players reach the NBA Finals. Lamarcus
Aldridge and Kevin Love of the Spurs and Cavaliers respectively have help their teams sweep their opening round opponents. Both of them have home court advantage as they enter the second round.


Love had a double double in each of his team's victories. Aldridge had two double doubles. His team was involved in games that were blow outs and that his minutes were down since the outcome was decided by the third quarter.
 
Love has averaged over 8 post ups per game throughout the playoffs, and Cleveland has averaged 0.87 points per possession in possessions where he had a post up. Love has shot on 57.6% of his post ups, but he’s only made 21.1% of these shots.



 
Aldridge has mostly been matched up with Serge Ibaka in this season’s series between the Spurs and Thunder. He’s found great success when facing Ibaka, going 7-14 (50%) from the field and tallying 15 points in almost 20 minutes of play. Enes Kanter and Steven Adams were both more effective at stopping Aldridge, with each allowing only 1-4 (25%) shooting.
 
I expect the Cavs to dominate the Hawks and Love will continue to double double.  Aldridge will play more minutes this series because the games will be close. I anticipate more production against OKC and would pick him to outperform Love. The price for Love is $7500 while the cost of having Aldridge is approximately $7800.
 
 
 
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Saturday, April 23, 2016

NBA Playoffs Fantasy Pick: Isaiah Thomas vs. Paul George

My 2nd match up will compare the productivity of  Isaiah Thomas and Paul George. I chose this pairing because both of them are trailing in their respective series; 2 games to 1. They also have the next game at their home court.



This chart compares the last 5 regular season games of each player.
 
I also compared how each produced in a home game. Both averaged 22.6 in their last 5 regular season games. George grabs more rebounds and should double Thomas in this category. Thomas will get at least 3 more assists with 1 less turnover per game. George is a more complete player but Thomas will have the ball more. The injuries to the Celtics and a comparable price make Thomas my play.
 
 
 
 
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Friday, April 15, 2016

NBA Playoffs: Klay Thompson or James Harden

This is the 1st of the series of comparing players during the NBA playoffs. I decided to look at the match up between Klay Thompson and James Harden. This comes on the heels of the Warriors record setting 73-9 season and the Rockets rush to the 8th and final playoff spot. I selected this match up because these two will play each other in the 1st round. I realize they are in different price ranges in daily fantasy.


Analytics indicate that all players perform better when rested. Keep that in mind since there are 2 to 3 days between games to get the ultimate performance.
Harden has average 10 points more during the last 5 games of the regular season. His turnovers are down during this same period by 1 to 2 per game. His value per cost has increased .12 over the season and he is trending up.
Thompson is averaging 4 points less but getting 1 more rebound per outing during the last 5 games. His value per cost has decreased by .24 and he is trending down. Thompson's price is better.





Harden will give more productivity. He won't be playing beyond this series so grab him now!

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Friday, April 8, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2015-2016

The NBA playoffs started this week. I will have a series of articles that will compare comparable
players based on daily fantasy prices and make a determination as to which one has the best value.
I will also participate in a contest that will run through the entire playoffs. The players that obtain
a double - double will get one point. If the player get a triple double, he gets two points. A quadruple double that does not include turnovers would get 4 points. The player that gets the most points wins.
I want the fans of DraftKing and FanDuel to follow me and see how well I do. Tell me who you would pick as your player. I will update this blog post through the duration of the playoffs.

Which of these guys would you pick?





Follow me and see which one, if any, I select. Leave a comment if you like someone not pictured.

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               Read my latest post about #Warriors Klay Thompson & #Rockets James Harden.
thegamingguyproductions.blogspot.com/2016/04/nba-playoffs-klay-thompson-or-james.html

Friday, April 1, 2016

This Week in Gaming Review

 
FanDuel and DraftKings have suspended all college sports contests involving NCAA players from their offering of Fantasy Sports effective at the end of this Final Four Weekend.This makes Fantasy Sports acceptable to some legislators that are currently on the fence. They are presently 30 states that are considering some form of regulations (pro or con) about daily fantasy. While the debate over skill
or gambling continues, most states see this as a tax generating revenue base. It is part of what the public considers fun. This is simply giving the people what they want.



 
                                                                  Final Four Odds
                                         The North Carolina vs. Syracuse analysis is here.


The Tar Heels opened as a 4-5 favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, followed by Villanova at 11-4, Oklahoma at 4-1 and long-shot Syracuse at 10-1.  The match up between Nova and the Sooners is here.
Villanova -1.5 o/u 149.5
North Carolina  -9.5 o/u 149.5
Both of the above are opening numbers.

As of this post,the Sooners are now 7-2 and Carolina is 5-7.
The Orangemen are 12-1 and the Cats are 16-5. When you compare the line movement,the sports books are generating interest in both of the former Big East rivals. Interest does not always lead to
action.
 
Villanova was attracting the bulk of the early bets against Oklahoma at sportsbook operator CG Technology. According to CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal, 10 times more money had been wagered on the favored Wildcats compared to the Sooners as of Sunday night.

                                    Follow me  for my picks for the #FinalFour 

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Saturday, March 12, 2016

NBA Daily Fantasy:Russell Westbrook vs. Kevin Durant



I am caught up in the #SSAC16 and #DecadeofData frenzy. I am sharing my own analytics comparing Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. I compared their stats over the entire season
to the last 5 games played. I used a scoring system that is associated with #FanDuel.  Assists and Rebounds have more statistical value than points. Turnovers are negative so they decrease the player's score.

I chose Westbrook and Durant because they have similar value in the Daily Fantasy Sport world.
I assigned both of them a cash value of $10,900.

Who would you select? ________

My answer is below.






 Durant is outscoring Westbrook by 8 points over the past 5 games. Westbrook has almost twice as many assists during the same period. Durant total fantasy value over the past 5 games is 50.68 while Westbrook value is 47.70. Both of them have alarmingly high turnover ratios.My analytics show an overall upward trend for Durant.
 
 
 
Westbrook is ahead of Durant statistically for the season with a fantasy value projection base on price of 4.61 to 4.43. I would stay with Westbrook at the same price but if the trend continues upward over the next 2 games then switch to Durant. Value and timing are extremely important elements to winning.
 
The Thunder play the Spurs tonight on NBA on ABC.  See the complete schedule . I am staying with Westbrook since he will be matched against Tony Parker (offensively) more than Kawhi Leonard. More favorable for Westbrook.

                                                          

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This week in Gaming Review



Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Director of the Office of Compulsive and Problem Gambling, Elizabeth Lanza, has received the “2016 Person of the Year Award” from the Council on Compulsive Gambling of Pennsylvania.  Director Lanza received the award last week during the organization’s “2016 CCGPA Statewide Conference East” in Trevose. This is outstanding news and well timed. This is National Problem Gaming Awareness Month. I suggest we take a moment to revisit some of the initiatives the AGA recommends regarding responsible gaming.




New Jersey is strongly exploring the concept of skill based games with regulations that will fast
track new product to the casino floor. I expect more new about this at the IGNA and the ECGC. The I Gaming North America will be held 4/5/16 thru 4/7/16. The East Coast Gaming Congress will take place 5/25/16 thru 5/26/16. I plan to follow attendees and provide commentary during both events.





New Jersey is also looking at Daily Fantasy Sports as a revenue generator. State Senator Jim Whelan proposed a bill that would regulate daily leagues only and tax them at the current casino rate of 9.5%.


More news from PokerStars this week. In a press release, PokerStars parent company Amaya stated:
“Amaya Inc. (NASDAQ: AYA; TSX: AYA) today announced that it expects to initially launch its PokerStars brand in New Jersey on Monday, March 21, 2016.  The launch quickly follows the September 2015 authorization by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (the “DGE”) to operate the PokerStars and Full Tilt brands in the State. Amaya currently expects to conduct an interim testing period with the DGE and a beta period for a limited player base beginning in mid-March.”

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