Sports Betting-By the Numbers:NFL Win Totals

 

This week is the start of NFL Training Camps.Since the next few weeks are relatively light in terms of activity,you should be focused on the NFL Win Total for your team.Those numbers are available to you on most sports betting apps.

The popular strategy for approaching the total wins is to go through the schedule meticulously and look at each game. Remove the emotional attachment and look at the each game objectively.Add up the number of winsnand compare your number to what the sport betting operator has posted. If your total exceeds the projected amount ,you will make a wager going over. If you have less wins than the projection, then the under is the play.

If you are not able to be objective then focus on the win total of a team that is not in your team's division. It should be a team that you are familiar with. Look at the strgenth of schedule and when the bye week takes place. If there is a key injury to the starting quarterback,does the team you picked have a viable backup.Also look at how many trips a team makes across country.and what was their road record in similar situations last season.

The projections are generally the same at every sports book. The difference will be in the price. An example is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are projected at10.5 wins.One operator has the under at -150 and the over at +120.A competitor has the same projection with the price -155 for the under and the over at +130.The competitor is offering better odds at the exact same number. Go with the competitor!

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Sports Betting-Inside the Numbers:Totals

 A popular method of wagering on sports is totals.Totals are the amount of scores combine in a contest or by an individual. The runs in MLB,the points in the NFL,NBA,WNBA,NCAA Football  and Basketball,along with  NHL are events that most people will bet on. The total gives you the ability to watch and have a vested interest in both teams.You can make your bet on one team to exceed or go under a projected number as well.

How the Sports Book Operators determines  the total for a contest by combining the points that the two teams averaged together.The 2024 Super Bowl LVIII featured the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The total was set at 47.5. The 49ers averaged 28.9 points in 2023.The Chiefs averaged 21.8 points.Both teams had outstanding defenses so a number that would be 50.5 was modified by 3 points. The final score was the Chiefs winning 25-22 in overtime.  

There are situations when the Operators are feeling out the public and setting a number based on speculation. Indiana Fever Guard Caitlin Clark played in her first WNBA game against the Connecticut Sun. Her projected points for that game were 20.5. This was based on her performance in college where she averaged 28.4 for her career. She scored 20 in a 92-71 loss.Most of the tickets were on Clark to go over the number. 

The public is prone to make wagers on the over because of the appeal of offense. The use of algorithms keeps the projected number close to the final outcome. This is the ideal circumstance for the operator and the betting public. The public will gravitate toward the over in most sports but over the last 10 seasons in the NFL,the games have gone under 51.32% of the time. Less than 2% of the game end in a push . A push is when a game ends in a tie. 

The strategies  with totals should factor in injuries,weather and if applicable,recent divisional history. Avoid out of conference games unless one team is clearly superior to the other. That team will dominate and the lean to the over would be the play.When looking at individuals,focus on the player's average,last 5 games played and recent performance against an opponent.

Now I will get you ready for the Summer Olympics. Root for your country and make money while doing it. Always practice smart responsible gaming! We will dive into the Summer Games in my next posy.

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