NBA Playoffs - Round 2

Here is a recap of the hits and misses of the 1st round predictions.
Hits were Jazz over Thunder. Sixers over Heat and Cavs over Pacers.
The amount of games the Sixers and Cavs took was slightly off but they won.

Misses were the broom alerts for the Spurs and Timberwolves. Each won a game on
their home court. The over in each game of Pelicans and Blazers hit 50%. Prediction
was set at 100%.

In the 2nd Round, Philly will beat the Celtics in 6. Philly will run on Boston. Something
the Bucks were not able to do. They play defense and will not let Boston score inside.

Cavs over Raptors. Lebron will continue to dominate and lead the Cavs over the Raptors in
6. Toronto comes up short again.

Warriors and Rockets will win their series over the Pelicans and Jazz in 4 and 5 respectively.
A broom alert is set for Pelicans. Durant and Harden meet in the conference finals.

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NBA Playoffs Preview: Eastern Conference

Let's look at the Eastern Conference of the NBA Playoffs. While the teams are not as good as their western counterparts, there are 4 series that a case can be made for either team.

Cavaliers open against the Pacers. Lebron James always rises his game to another level when the spotlight gets bigger. Paul George will play well but will go down in 6. Cavs defense will improve during this first round.

Celtics vs. Bulls. Thomas against Butler. While Thomas is a top 15 player in the league, Butler has Wade with him. Rondo comes back to haunt his former team. Bulls in 6 in an upset.

Raptors and Bucks. Toronto is stronger and deeper. This series is entertaining but Raptors win in 5.

Wizards and Hawks. John Wall has improved his game and will lead his team into the next round. Hawks are a surprise because they are not as good as last year. It's the Wizards in 6.

                                        Here is the Western Conference Preview.

                                                  
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NBA Final Four

We are down to the last 4 teams in the NBA. We have the Cavaliers, Raptors, Warriors and OKC.
The anticipated matchup between this 4 would be between the Cavs and Golden State because they were in the Finals last year.

First things first. The Warriors are heavy favorite over OKC. They are a -500 to win the series.
The Thunder are a +400 to win. That means if you take OKC and bet 100 on them to win, you get 400 back. You also get your 100. Sounds good! But not likely to happen. Warriors have OKC number this year, winning each time they have played. Curry will give them something to talk about. This should be quick. Golden State in 5.

Cavaliers are favored against the Raptors because they are playing their best ball of the season right now. They have home court advantage and are well rested. Lebron, Love and Irving are all playing well. The entire team is shooting outstanding from 3 point range. Cavs are rested. Raptors did take the season series 2-1 from them. They will only win 1 in this series. Cavs in 5.

I saw a nice prop bet that had Curry and Thompson vs. Durant and Westbrook. Who would score the most?  Durant and Westbrook are a -150 to win a hundred. I like that bet because Durant and Curry will cancel each other out. Westbrook will win his match up of scoring over Klay.

                                                                     Enjoy the games!


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NBA Fantasy Match Up: Kevin Love vs. Lamarcus Aldridge

This is a cross match up that may happen if both of these players reach the NBA Finals. Lamarcus
Aldridge and Kevin Love of the Spurs and Cavaliers respectively have help their teams sweep their opening round opponents. Both of them have home court advantage as they enter the second round.

Love had a double double in each of his team's victories. Aldridge had two double doubles. His team was involved in games that were blow outs and that his minutes were down since the outcome was decided by the third quarter.

 

Love has averaged over 8 post ups per game throughout the playoffs, and Cleveland has averaged 0.87 points per possession in possessions where he had a post up. Love has shot on 57.6% of his post ups, but he’s only made 21.1% of these shots.

 

Aldridge has mostly been matched up with Serge Ibaka in this season’s series between the Spurs and Thunder. He’s found great success when facing Ibaka, going 7-14 (50%) from the field and tallying 15 points in almost 20 minutes of play. Enes Kanter and Steven Adams were both more effective at stopping Aldridge, with each allowing only 1-4 (25%) shooting.

 

I expect the Cavs to dominate the Hawks and Love will continue to double double.  Aldridge will play more minutes this series because the games will be close. I anticipate more production against OKC and would pick him to outperform Love. The price for Love is $7500 while the cost of having Aldridge is approximately $7800.

 

 

 

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NBA Playoffs Fantasy Pick: Isaiah Thomas vs. Paul George

My 2nd match up will compare the productivity of  Isaiah Thomas and Paul George. I chose this pairing because both of them are trailing in their respective series; 2 games to 1. They also have the next game at their home court.

This chart compares the last 5 regular season games of each player.

 

I also compared how each produced in a home game. Both averaged 22.6 in their last 5 regular season games. George grabs more rebounds and should double Thomas in this category. Thomas will get at least 3 more assists with 1 less turnover per game. George is a more complete player but Thomas will have the ball more. The injuries to the Celtics and a comparable price make Thomas my play.

 

 

 

 

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NBA Playoffs: Klay Thompson or James Harden

This is the 1st of the series of comparing players during the NBA playoffs. I decided to look at the match up between Klay Thompson and James Harden. This comes on the heels of the Warriors record setting 73-9 season and the Rockets rush to the 8th and final playoff spot. I selected this match up because these two will play each other in the 1st round. I realize they are in different price ranges in daily fantasy.

Analytics indicate that all players perform better when rested. Keep that in mind since there are 2 to 3 days between games to get the ultimate performance.

Harden has average 10 points more during the last 5 games of the regular season. His turnovers are down during this same period by 1 to 2 per game. His value per cost has increased .12 over the season and he is trending up.

Thompson is averaging 4 points less but getting 1 more rebound per outing during the last 5 games. His value per cost has decreased by .24 and he is trending down. Thompson's price is better.

Harden will give more productivity. He won't be playing beyond this series so grab him now!

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