NFL-NFC West Win Totals

 The NFC West is the fome of the NFC Defending Conference Champion San Francisco Niners,The division has at least 2 playoff teams in each of the last 4 seasons. The Niners have won the division the past 3 seasons.They are the only team in the division this year with a double digit projection win total.Let examine the entire division and see how they stack up in 2024.

The San Francisco 49ers have a projected win total of 11.5. The Niners record was 12-5 in 2023. The team loss in the Super Bowl to the two time Champion Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 25-22 in OT. The team is relatively intact a in position to dominate the National Conference. Over the past 3 seasons,the Niners have averaged  11.6 wins. They have a potent offense and a top 5 defense.While their schedule in 2024 includes the Kansas City Cheifs,Miami Dolphins,Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, they would be a slight underdog in 3 of those games because they will be on the road. They are 18-8 on the road over the last 3 years for a win percentage of 69.2%. The Niners go over 11.5 barely.

The Los Angeles Rams are projected at 8.5. The Rams have QB Matthew Stafford who is showing no signs of slowing down. The dynamic duo of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua put fear into any secondary. The retirement of Aaron Donald will weaken the defense so most games will be shootouts. As long as Stafford is healthy and has a slight threat of a run game,the Rams will be in most contests.The Rams should win 3 of the 4 games they play against the NFC North. I see 3 wins in their division as well. The Rams will edge by the projected total of 8.5.

The Seattle Seahawks are projected at 7.5. The rebuilding is finally reached Seattle. It was supposed to start when QB Russell Wilson left and was traded to the Denver Broncos.Nobody told QB Geno Smith and he proceeded to have two seasons where he led them to consecutive 9-8 seasons.The problem for the Seahawks have been the defense and penalties. The hire of Leslie Frazier as defensive cordinactor will improve some of the problem. However the hirer of Head Coach Mike MacDonald will take time to pay dividends. The Seahawks fall short of the 7.5 and go under.

The Arizona Cardinals are projected at 7.5. At first glance, you may think this is an overstimation of the Cardinals who finished with consecutive 4-13 records. The defense showed flashes of improvement and the addition of WR Marvin Harrison Jr, is part of the optomism. If QB Kyler Murray can avoid injury, a eight or nine game win total is within reach. The potential wins on the schedule include the Minnesota Vikings,Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots. The team is capable of two upsets as they play AFC East opponents,  New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills.Don 't see playoffs but do see improvement. Cardinals over 7.5.

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Sports Betting-By the Numbers:NFL Win Totals

 

This week is the start of NFL Training Camps.Since the next few weeks are relatively light in terms of activity,you should be focused on the NFL Win Total for your team.Those numbers are available to you on most sports betting apps.

The popular strategy for approaching the total wins is to go through the schedule meticulously and look at each game. Remove the emotional attachment and look at the each game objectively.Add up the number of winsnand compare your number to what the sport betting operator has posted. If your total exceeds the projected amount ,you will make a wager going over. If you have less wins than the projection, then the under is the play.

If you are not able to be objective then focus on the win total of a team that is not in your team's division. It should be a team that you are familiar with. Look at the strgenth of schedule and when the bye week takes place. If there is a key injury to the starting quarterback,does the team you picked have a viable backup.Also look at how many trips a team makes across country.and what was their road record in similar situations last season.

The projections are generally the same at every sports book. The difference will be in the price. An example is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are projected at10.5 wins.One operator has the under at -150 and the over at +120.A competitor has the same projection with the price -155 for the under and the over at +130.The competitor is offering better odds at the exact same number. Go with the competitor!

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