NFL Games to watch - Week Two

 The NFL Games to watch in week two are on Thursday,Sunday and Monday Night Football. The Thursday Night  Football Game is on Amazon Prime.The Buffalo Bills will play the Miami Dolphins. Both teams are AFC East Rivals and won their home openers. The Bills have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two. Bills are underdog by 2.5. Miami is the home team/.

The Sunday Night Football Game has the Chicago Bears against the Houston Texans. The game is on NBC. The Bears nad a come from behind win against the Tennessee Titans. The Texans held on winning on the road by 2 points over the Indianapolis Colts. The Bear have the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft,QB Caleb Williams as their starter. The Texans are favored by 6 points. The game starts at 8:20 PM and Houston is the home team.

The Monday Night Football Game pits the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.The Eagles are the home team. Philly won their opener in Brazil by beating the Green Bay Packers 34-29. The Falcons lost their home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers without allowing a touchdown.The Eagles are favored by 6.5.

My selections in these games take s me to the home teams. Buffalo struggled with the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins should score more than 20 points they put up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Josh Allen has a injury to his non throwing hamd but is expected to play.  Fins win a close game.

Thw Texans and Eagles should put up 24 or more points and easily handle the Bears and Falcons. The inexperience of Caleb Williams will be exploited. The rust,age and lack of mobility of QB Kirk Cousins will be on full display as the Eagles have extra time to prepare for the contest.  

Expect big games from Tyreek Hill,Stefon Diggs and Saquon Barkley.

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The Top 1-0 NFL Teams

The  top five 1-0 teams in the NFL are the Dallas Cowboys,SanFrancisco 49ers,Kansas City Chiefs,Detroit Lions and Houston Texans. $ of these teams covered against the spread  and 80% of the 5 games went over. 

The Top 0-1 NFL Teams

The teams that should bounce back after losing in the final seconds of their openers are the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars. Key injuries to the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers keep them from making the cut.

The Worst 0-1 NFL Teams

The worst teams in the NFL include the Carolina Panthers.New York Giantsand the Las Vegas Raiders. The Panthers lost by over 30 points on the road. The Giants managed 6 points at home against the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders lack of discipline and physicality on defense led to their loss on the road to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Avoid QBs Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers,Bryce Young and Daniel Jones as players to go over projected  totals in passing yardage. Check their prop action for the best price of any of this group throwing an interception in week two.

NFL- AFC East Win Totals

 The NFL AFC East has three of the top quarterbacks in the entire league. The recent ranking of quarterbacks by PFF has Josh Allen,Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa as 4th,8th and 14th. This division had at least two teams in the playoffs over the past two years.The wins for the Buffalo Bills,New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are projected at 9.5 or higher. The New England Patriots are not expected to contend for the division. Let's take a peek at each team and see what's ahead.

The Buffalo Bills are projected at 10.5. The Bills have QB Josh Allen and that makes them deadly. Allen can win games with his arm as well as his legs. He will be without his main target ,WR Stefon Diggs,who was traded to the Houston Texans.This places Head Coach Sean McDermott in a make or break year. The Bills have not advanced to the Super Bowl under McDermott. The Kansas City Chiefs and bad luck seem to thwart them every year. The run defense struggled in 2023 so that must improve. I think this is the year that the Bills do not live up to expectations. I see the championship window closing for Allen and McDermott with the coach moving on after this season. Take the Bills under.

The New York Jets are projected at 9.5. The Jets are hoping that Aaron Rodgers can return to form after suffering a torn achilles on the first series of play in 2023. Rodgers is 40 years old and was not at the mandatory workouts prior to the start of training camp. This makes one question if his heart is commited to anotherNFL season. He does have weaponswith RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson.  The jets are one of the top defenses in the NFL. Head Coach Robert Saleh is in a position where the Jets must make the playoffs if he expects to return.Since I am not totally sold on Rodgers .I will go in contrast to public opinion and go under on the Jets win total.

The Miami Dolphins are projected at 9.5, The Dolphins just extend Tua and WR Tyreek Hill. Miami has the most potent offense in the league and put up record numbers in 2023. Miami were ranked 1st in passing,4th in rushing and 1st in scoring. I expect 2024 to be a duplication. If the defense remains strong in QB pressure and improve their third down conversion rate,the Dolphins should be the top team in the division again. Miami won 11 games and finished second in the division.They will pass the projected total.

The New England Patriots are projected at 4.5 wins. Long time Head Coach Bill Belcheck has moved on after an outstanding run with the Pats. While new Head Coach Jarod Mayo was considered the heir apparent to replace Belcheck. The last two season the Patriots won 12 games and missed the playoffs. This is a rebuilding situation and a dynamic shift in team culture. QB Drake Mayo is talented but needs time to learn the position.The Patriot go under the projected total.

Here is a clip of the AFC Total Wins

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NFL Totals for 2022

 

The NFL is just one day away from starting the 2022 season. A great time to look at some over/under projections for several NFL teams. I looked at the schedule and breakdown the victories and the losses. I also look for teams that have a winning streak against their opponents within a division.

An example of this is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have won seven straight games against the Miami Dolphins and four straight against the New York Jets. If those streaks continue and the Bills split with the New England Patriots as they have in the past two seasons, Buffalo will have 5 wins in their own division. The Bills play the NFC North with projected wins against the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. Buffalo plays Green Bay at home and after a bye week. They will be favored to win that game. This would take them to 8 wins. With games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns the Bills can easily be at 10 wins This would mean that the Bills would need 2 wins against this group of teams. The Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Baltimore Ravens. I see the 1^st game against the Rams as a potential loss. The Bills would finish 12-5 and go over the projected total of 11.5. The price is -140 if you take them over.

Most times the emphasis is on the good teams and a winning situation. There is value in taking the projected under on teams transitioning due to coaching or quarterback changes. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers are going into a season for the 1^st time in over 15 seasons without Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will have problems with division opponents and will only be favored in their home game against the Cleveland Browns. With 5 projected losses within the division the Steelers will look at a 1-3 mark against the AFC East, they should only be favored against the Jets. Pittsburgh is projected at 7.5 wins. The under price is -135.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are being coach by Doug Pederson. The culture needs a makeover after Urban Meyers toxic reign as coach. Even having Trevor Lawrence, the number one pick in the 2021 draft is not enough to project this team to above 500.The Jags will go 0-4 against the AFC West. The same outlook appears when they play the NFC East. With 8 losses. Jacksonville would have to win 7 of the nine remaining games. Wins should come against the Texans, Jets and Detroit. The Jags should come short of the projected total of 6.5 games. The under has a price of -120.

Bet RIVERS has several alternate team wins projected over and under. Check them out at Bet Rivers

 

Here are several top teams and their projected win totals.

Kansas City Chiefs-10.5

Dallas Cowboys - 10

Los Angeles Rams-10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 11.5

Green Bay Packers-11

Baltimore Ravens-9.5

I would advise you to look at the schedules and gauge where the wins and losses will occur before making your selections.