The NFL AFC East has three of the top quarterbacks in the entire league. The recent ranking of quarterbacks by PFF has Josh Allen,Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa as 4th,8th and 14th. This division had at least two teams in the playoffs over the past two years.The wins for the Buffalo Bills,New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are projected at 9.5 or higher. The New England Patriots are not expected to contend for the division. Let's take a peek at each team and see what's ahead.
The Buffalo Bills are projected at 10.5. The Bills have QB Josh Allen and that makes them deadly. Allen can win games with his arm as well as his legs. He will be without his main target ,WR Stefon Diggs,who was traded to the Houston Texans.This places Head Coach Sean McDermott in a make or break year. The Bills have not advanced to the Super Bowl under McDermott. The Kansas City Chiefs and bad luck seem to thwart them every year. The run defense struggled in 2023 so that must improve. I think this is the year that the Bills do not live up to expectations. I see the championship window closing for Allen and McDermott with the coach moving on after this season. Take the Bills under.
The New York Jets are projected at 9.5. The Jets are hoping that Aaron Rodgers can return to form after suffering a torn achilles on the first series of play in 2023. Rodgers is 40 years old and was not at the mandatory workouts prior to the start of training camp. This makes one question if his heart is commited to anotherNFL season. He does have weaponswith RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. The jets are one of the top defenses in the NFL. Head Coach Robert Saleh is in a position where the Jets must make the playoffs if he expects to return.Since I am not totally sold on Rodgers .I will go in contrast to public opinion and go under on the Jets win total.
The Miami Dolphins are projected at 9.5, The Dolphins just extend Tua and WR Tyreek Hill. Miami has the most potent offense in the league and put up record numbers in 2023. Miami were ranked 1st in passing,4th in rushing and 1st in scoring. I expect 2024 to be a duplication. If the defense remains strong in QB pressure and improve their third down conversion rate,the Dolphins should be the top team in the division again. Miami won 11 games and finished second in the division.They will pass the projected total.
The New England Patriots are projected at 4.5 wins. Long time Head Coach Bill Belcheck has moved on after an outstanding run with the Pats. While new Head Coach Jarod Mayo was considered the heir apparent to replace Belcheck. The last two season the Patriots won 12 games and missed the playoffs. This is a rebuilding situation and a dynamic shift in team culture. QB Drake Mayo is talented but needs time to learn the position.The Patriot go under the projected total.
Here is a clip of the AFC Total Wins
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