NFL Super Bowl and Win Total

 The NFL starts this Thursday. So I decided to compare my NFL win total and rankings to two reputable media sources. My selections were made prior to seeing what Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports projected.This comparision enables you to see if my thoughts align or contrast with two highly repected publications.

I will start with Sports Illustrated and the rankings of the top 12 teams. My list includes of my 8 division winners,not including the Tampa Bay Bucs and 5 teams that I think will be wild card teams.I based my selections on the prognosis that 4 teams that were not in the playoffs in 2023 will be in the 2024 pairings. 

Gaming Guy Rankings                                               Sports Illustrated

 

1).Niners                                                                  1). Chiefs

2).Chiefs                                                                   2).Bills

3).Ravens                                                                  3).Jets

4).Dolphins                                                                4).Ravens

5)Texans                                                                     5).Bengals

6).Eagles                                                                    6).Browns 

7).Lions                                                                      7).Texans

8).Bengals                                                                    8).Niners

9).Packers                                                                     9).Rams

10).Steelers                                                                  10).Lions

11).Chargers                                                                11).Packers

12).Rams                                                                       12).Eagles

With the  NFLwin total,I decided to look at the lower end of the spectrum and teams not expected to contend for the Super Bowl.

We agreed on the Arizona Cardinals going over 6.5 wins. We disagreed on the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos. The reporter projected both teams to exceed 5.5. I have the Chicago Bears going over 8.5 while CBS Sports has them winning 8 games.  

Here is the link to more CBS Sports win totals. 

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NFL-NFC South Win Totals

 The NFC South is a division that does not posess one team that is projected with a double digit win total. This shows the low ceiling of expectations that the sports betting operators have for each team. The highest projected win total in the NFC South is the Atlanta Falcons with 9.5. This is a fall from 2021 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl ,defeating the Kansas City Chiefs.The odds for a Super Bowl win in this division are +1500.That number is the hghest of the four divisions in the National Conference. Let's dissect each team and see the win projections.

The Atlanta Falcons are projected at 9.5. The addition of QB Kirk Cousins has infuse some excitemeny in the dirty south.The Falcons had some good players in 2023. RB Bijan Robinson should improve upon his rookie season numbers of 8 TDs and over 1400 yards,rushing and recieving.The Falcons just added depth to their offensive line with two veteran signings. Look for a breakout year from Drake London,a wide reciever entering his third year. The question mark is the recovery of Cousins from his achilles injury. While top QB draft pick Michael Penix Jr. is talented,he is not expected to play right away.  The recovery time of Cousins injury is generally a year . The firts three games are potential losses against the Pittsburgh Steelers,Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. The Falcons will struggle to find 9 wins and they will go under the total.

The Tampa Bay Buccanners are projected at 7,5. Tampa Bay has fwon the NFC South the last 4 years in a row. Look for 4 to 5 wins in the division and 3 possibles against the Washington Commanders,Denver Broncos and the New York Giants. While QB Baker Mayfield is not a top tier quarterback,he can manage a game. TheBucs go over the projection and challenge for the division title.

The New Orleans Saints are projected at 7.5.QB Derek Carr is erratic and does not evoke confidence as you look at the Saints. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler is getting high praise in training camp.The possible wins outside the division are against the Denver Broncos,New York Giants and the Washington Commanders. Three wins against divisonal opponents and the win total is 6. One upset along theway and a win over the Las Vegas Raiders will push them over the projection.

The Carolina Panthers are projected at 5.5. The Panther have the distinction of being one of the worst teams in rhe NFL. While QB Bryce Young  did not have much to work with in 2023,his perfomance was not what you would expect from a top draft pick. The Panthers were 2-15 last year. The expectations are similar for 2024. Panther will be hard pressed to win a game within the division.The Panthers go under the 5.5 projection.

Here is a clip of the NFC South Win Projection.

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Sports Betting-Inside the Numbers:Totals

 A popular method of wagering on sports is totals.Totals are the amount of scores combine in a contest or by an individual. The runs in MLB,the points in the NFL,NBA,WNBA,NCAA Football  and Basketball,along with  NHL are events that most people will bet on. The total gives you the ability to watch and have a vested interest in both teams.You can make your bet on one team to exceed or go under a projected number as well.

How the Sports Book Operators determines  the total for a contest by combining the points that the two teams averaged together.The 2024 Super Bowl LVIII featured the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The total was set at 47.5. The 49ers averaged 28.9 points in 2023.The Chiefs averaged 21.8 points.Both teams had outstanding defenses so a number that would be 50.5 was modified by 3 points. The final score was the Chiefs winning 25-22 in overtime.  

There are situations when the Operators are feeling out the public and setting a number based on speculation. Indiana Fever Guard Caitlin Clark played in her first WNBA game against the Connecticut Sun. Her projected points for that game were 20.5. This was based on her performance in college where she averaged 28.4 for her career. She scored 20 in a 92-71 loss.Most of the tickets were on Clark to go over the number. 

The public is prone to make wagers on the over because of the appeal of offense. The use of algorithms keeps the projected number close to the final outcome. This is the ideal circumstance for the operator and the betting public. The public will gravitate toward the over in most sports but over the last 10 seasons in the NFL,the games have gone under 51.32% of the time. Less than 2% of the game end in a push . A push is when a game ends in a tie. 

The strategies  with totals should factor in injuries,weather and if applicable,recent divisional history. Avoid out of conference games unless one team is clearly superior to the other. That team will dominate and the lean to the over would be the play.When looking at individuals,focus on the player's average,last 5 games played and recent performance against an opponent.

Now I will get you ready for the Summer Olympics. Root for your country and make money while doing it. Always practice smart responsible gaming! We will dive into the Summer Games in my next posy.

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Black History Month and the NBA

During the NBA All Atar Weekend,the NBA is having the 1st ever NBA HBCU Classic on Saturday, Feb 19th. The teams participating are Morgan State University and Howard University, The NBA and AT&T will donate $100,000 to each school's atheletic department totaling $200,000. The game will be broadcast by TNT and ESPN2. The game will be attended by the NBA All Stars and the members of the 75th Anniversary Team. 

The NBA has shown that it understands the important responsibility they have to women and people of color. They recognize Black History Month and celebrate the HBCUs in a manner that will pay huge dividends beyond the money they donated. Every Professional Sports League should follow suit and find ways to pay homage to the ancestors that paved the way for the current players.  

If the NFL and MLB are watching, they should be formulating plans to do something.  Next year's Super Bowl game is played in February so there is an opportunity to celebrate Black History. The MLB normally starts spring training in February and celebrating Black History would create interest in their season.

If the leagues don;t evolve ,they will lose their appeal to women and people of color, There are so many entertainment options to chose from. No one can asume that the public will always patronize and support their brand or product. Diversity and Inclusion are the key components for all successful organizations. 

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Sports Business and Wagering this Week

This will keep you current with the industry. These post will include trends about the sports betting market and information about what state is planning to offer it next. This will be a winning situation for a sophisticated operator and his constituents. 

Rivers Casino Pittsburgh hired Jimmy Vaccaro to join their team as Director of Sports Relations.This coincides with the recent opening of the sports betting operations. Mr. Vaccaro is highly respected in the area of Race and Sports Management. The retail end of the sports book will improve significantly by having his expertise .

In a independent raking, Ocean Resort Casino was selected as the best place to bet on Sports in Atlantic City. They were cited as having the best odd boards and TV's in the area. They received this ranking without the benefit of having kiosks to enhance the betting process. Get the entire ranking for New Jersey & Pennsylvania from Philly.com and Ed Barkowitz. Follow Ed on Twitter @edbarkowitz.

The operator that you should be watching is  PointsBet. They are taking wagers in New Jersey and have their eye on action in New York once sport betting is legalized there.  They made international headlines by refunding wagers that were placed on Saints in the NFL Conference Game. Great public relations move by Johnny Aitken and Seth Young. They were also the 1st Sports Book in New Jersey to take bets on the 2019 Academy Awards Oscars.

                                                     Enjoy the Super Bowl!

Sports Business and Wagering this Week

This will keep you current with the industry. These post will include trends about the sports betting market and information about what state is planning to offer it next. This will be a winning situation for a sophisticated operator and his constituents. 

Harrah's Philadelphia Casino open it's sports betting operation this week. This is a permanent facility and has 4,300 square footage of space. It has 45 large screens and 19 lounge seats. Harrah's has partnered with Scientific Games for the technological platform that will eventually include a mobile app offering. This is the 3rd casino in the Philadelphia area to offer sports wagering. The others are Sugarhouse and Parx.

The Super Bowl is approaching and is anticipated as one of the largest wagering events of 2019. More money will be wagered legally on this game than any other Super Bowl. This is not because of the match up but due to more states having sports betting. The handle would have been higher if New England were playing the Saints. The marquee match between Brady and Brees would have generated large prop action.

The states that are strongly considering adding sports betting next are New York and Maryland. Governor Cuomo is all in favor of New York having wagers on site at the casinos. Maryland wants to keep pace with the fast track legislation in Washington DC. How intelligent each of the sports betting operations are managed will determine success and profitability.

NFL Elite Eight

We did well in the Wild Card Weekend round. Depending on when you got your bet down, Seahawks covered the 2.5 and pushed on the 2. Indy won outright and  the Eagles game went under. Ravens were not successful against the Chargers. 3-1 was the record.

So this week..

We like Indy with the points against the Chiefs. Indy has the formula that will keep the Chiefs at bay. Strong running game and long drives engineered by Andrew Luck. Mahomes had MVP season. This game will go over. Andy Reid exits playoff early again.

Cowboys have momentum. They are not as impressive on the road. Defense will travel and they will stop Todd Gurley. If you can find a prop bet that features Elliott vs. Gurley, take Zeke to have more rushing yards. Rams may have peaked too early. Take Boys and the points.

Patriots vs. Chargers. This one is easy. When you can get Brady and not lay a touchdown you take him. He is 7-0 against Rivers. Second straight cross country does not bode well. We are impress with the coach of the Chargers. But not over Belichick.

Eagles and Saints. Foles magic is still in the air. Dallas gave the blueprint on how to slow down Brees. It will work for a half.  Saints will finish more drives than Birds. If you must take this game go under. 50 is a lot in a playoff game. 

Odds to Win Super Bowl Llll – from Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas

Saints +225

Chiefs +450

Rams +450

Patriots +500

Chargers +900

Colts +1400

Cowboys +1400

                                                         Enjoy the games!